Tropical Storm GUSTAV

Tropical Storm Gustav will be moving WNW through the day today, towards the Gulf of Mexico.

There is a lot of uncertainty with this storm, as far as intensity and landfall, as well as time of lanfall.

Currently there is a High Pressure off of the East Coast of Florida that is blocking the storm from moving north, and keeping it on a west-north-west path for today, and a gradual northwest turn is expected during the day of Saturday, as the High breaks down. There is another High that is expected to build in over the Southeast United States that could stall Gustav over the coast of Louisiana which would not be good at all for those in Southeast Louisiana. This would put SELA in the right front quadrant of the storm, which put them under the gun for the strongest (possibly up to 130mph) winds, heavy rain, and winds from the East which will push water from the gulf into Lake Borne, into Lake Pontchartrain.

Current models are scattered as you can see. A general consensus of South Louisiana is evident, basically they show a general north motion then a turn to the west. Where that turn happens is unknown, at this point. The three - five day day forecast is very inaccurate. I did not put a line or a point beyond Sunday. where I feel it will be in the central Gulf of Mexico as a Category 3 hurricane. It is not impossible to see a stronger hurricane, after it passes over the loop current. The upper level winds are favorable for development. also the storm has increased on satellite tonight.