Tropical Storm GUSTAV

Tropical Storm Gustav will be moving WNW through the day today, towards the Gulf of Mexico.

There is a lot of uncertainty with this storm, as far as intensity and landfall, as well as time of lanfall.

Currently there is a High Pressure off of the East Coast of Florida that is blocking the storm from moving north, and keeping it on a west-north-west path for today, and a gradual northwest turn is expected during the day of Saturday, as the High breaks down. There is another High that is expected to build in over the Southeast United States that could stall Gustav over the coast of Louisiana which would not be good at all for those in Southeast Louisiana. This would put SELA in the right front quadrant of the storm, which put them under the gun for the strongest (possibly up to 130mph) winds, heavy rain, and winds from the East which will push water from the gulf into Lake Borne, into Lake Pontchartrain.

Current models are scattered as you can see. A general consensus of South Louisiana is evident, basically they show a general north motion then a turn to the west. Where that turn happens is unknown, at this point. The three - five day day forecast is very inaccurate. I did not put a line or a point beyond Sunday. where I feel it will be in the central Gulf of Mexico as a Category 3 hurricane. It is not impossible to see a stronger hurricane, after it passes over the loop current. The upper level winds are favorable for development. also the storm has increased on satellite tonight.

Forecast graphic

Three Day Forecast:






Five Day Forecast:

5am Update - Fay making landfall at Cape Romano...

...FAY MAKING LANDFALL AT CAPE ROMANO...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED.

AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTHWARD...
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF TO THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY. ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ELSEWHERE ARE DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST...ON THE FLORIDA
COASTLINE AT CAPE ROMANO...OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM...SOUTH OF
FT. MYERS FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...TAKING THE CENTER OF FAY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS FAY MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY. TIDES OF 2
TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...25.9 N...81.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

2:00am update NHC 8/19/08

WTNT31 KNHC 190558
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH YET AS FAY APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF FLORIDA......

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO TARPON SPRINGS...ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY
WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES...70 KM...SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...12 KM/HR. A MOTION JUST
EAST OF DUE NORTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WITH A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FAY COULD STILL APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS LIKELY WHILE FAY MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH WERE RECENTLY REPORTED
AT THE CMAN STATION AT MOLASSES REEF.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY. TIDES OF 2
TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF CUBA...WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES BEING POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH-FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...25.5 N...81.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

11:00pm Forecast Discussion 8/18/08

FAY'S ORGANIZATION HAS WAXED AND WANED THIS EVENING. THE STORM
BECAME QUITE DISORGANIZED IN APPEARANCE ON WSR-88D RADAR
OBSERVATIONS FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI EARLIER THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SHOWED INCREASED SPIRAL BANDING BUT NO CLOSED EYEWALL STRUCTURE.
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A FALL IN CENTRAL
PRESSURE BUT NO INCREASE IN FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS YET. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT ON
THE EAST SIDE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OR CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS AND
THIS ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO IMPARTING MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER
FAY. NONETHELESS...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR FAY TO STRENGTHEN
INTO A HURRICANE PRIOR TO CROSSING THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. OUR
FORECAST FOR FAY'S WEAKENING OVER THE PENINSULA MORE OR LESS
FOLLOWS THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL.

AIRCRAFT AND RADAR FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION NEAR 360/8. FAY IS
MOVING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS EAST AND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST AND NORTHWEST. SOME OF THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFDL...HWRF...AND U.K. MET
OFFICE MODELS...HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST FOR FAY'S TREK
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ALSO
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT. AFTER 1-2 DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE STEERING PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN AS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND BLOCKS THE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS GREAT DIVERSITY
IN THE OBJECTIVE TRACK FORECASTS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD...AND THEREFORE LARGER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE
FAY WILL EVENTUALLY GO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE HIGHLY SPREAD MODEL TRACKS. THE FORECAST OF
FAY'S INTENSITY IN THE 72-120 HOUR TIME FRAME IS OF COURSE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WATER. SHOULD FAY
REMAIN VERY NEAR OR OVER LAND...IT WOULD PROBABLY WEAKEN TO
DISSIPATION SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE.

5am Forecast Discussion

THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER OF FAY OVER
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ROTATION ALOFT APPARENT IN
RADAR IMAGERY. WITH THIS FIX...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/10.
ASCAT DATA SOUTH OF CUBA PRIOR TO LANDFALL SHOWED THE SURFACE
CENTER BECOMING ELONGATED...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE
ASYMMETRY...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DISTORTION OF THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION IS LIKELY DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTER OVER CUBA.
ALL TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FAY WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS UNTIL IT REACHES
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE
RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE EARLY ON...BUT SOME
ADDITIONAL RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE CURRENT
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE PERSISTS AND THE CYCLONE REMAINS VERTICALLY
CONNECTED. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY POOR. GIVEN THAT...ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD
SHIFT HAS BEEN MADE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT...WITH THESE WINDS OCCURRING
JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS IMPEDING THE
OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SOME
WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
GIVEN THIS PATTERN...RAPID STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT THE
SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FAY FROM
REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND SHIPS
GUIDANCE.

5am Update

FAY CROSSING CENTRAL CUBA...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND
FLORIDA BAY.

AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF
JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF
OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA
BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE
WESTWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND
LITTLE CAYMAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...170
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 155 MILES ...250
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF FAY SHOULD BE
EMERGING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER THIS MORNING...AND BE VERY
NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER OF FAY
EMERGES OVER WATER. FAY IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM TIDES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY.
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...22.5 N...80.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

2:00am update NHC

...FAY NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TOTARPON SPRINGS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONSARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLYWITHIN 36 HOURS.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESSOF FAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUEDBY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...180 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 180 MILES...305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND ATURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS WESTERN CUBA THIS MORNING AND MOVE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES CUBA...AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT NEARS THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KMFROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHCOAST OF CUBA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IN THE WARNING AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER GRAND CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. HEAVY RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...
21.9 N...81.1 W.
MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.

11:00pm Forecast Discussion

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS NEAR 0000 UTC SHOWED LITTLE MOTION SINCE THE EARLIER FIXES. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CUBAN RADARDATA IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS ILL-DEFINED AT THEMOMENT...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM EAST TO WEST. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING JUST TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 305/9. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM EARLIER TODAY. FAY IS LIKELY TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.

NOAA G-IV JET DATA SHOW MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL MODEL HAVE SHIFTED...ONCE AGAIN...TO THE EAST. THERE HAVE OBVIOUSLY BEEN SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS WITH OUR TRACK GUIDANCE...BUT THIS IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE MODEL INITIAL CONDITIONS. I HAVE NOT MADE MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH REMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING 45 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY SINCE EARLIER TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENTLY OBSERVED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS TO SUPPORT THIS VALUE. HOWEVER IT IS BELIEVED THAT THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE STRONG CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WHICH WAS NOT SAMPLED BY THE AIRCRAFT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS IMPEDING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAY EVEN BE CAUSING SOME UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE STORM. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREFORE SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WHILE FAY IS OVER WATER DURING THE EARLIER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY 48 HOURS OR SO...SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFDL AND HWRF MODEL PREDICTIONS.

IT SHOULD BE ADDED THAT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST HOWEVER. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. A BETTER WAY OF ASSESSING YOUR RISK IS TO MAKE USE OF THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES. THESE DO NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR GIVEN LOCATIONS WHEN SMALL ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

three day forecast from NHC

This is the three day forecast from the National Hurricane Center at 9am EDT there are Hurricane watches up for the Florida Keys, up to Ocean Reef, Florida. (Including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay, and along the Florida mainland from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Bonita Beach) Tropical Storm watches are up on the East Cost of Florida, from Ocean Reef to Jupiter Inlet, including Lake Okeechobee.

A hurricane watch means that Hurricane conditions are possible in the next 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm watche means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the next 36 hours.

I will be doing my own forecast and will be posting that later with my own grahics. Its been a long time since I've done this so I may be rusty..

5pm Forecast Discussion

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT FAY
IS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN BELIEVED EARLIER...WITH THE INITIAL
INTENSITY NEAR 35 KT AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT 1006 MB. THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE WAS RAGGED A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT A NEW CLUSTER
OF STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIRELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14. FAY REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR FLORIDA
THAT SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHAFTER 36 HR. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHEN AND HOW SHARPLY FAY WILL TURN. THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS REMAIN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND HAVE BEEN JOINED BY THE GFDL WHICH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN. THESE MODELS CALL FOR A SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA LANDFALL. THE GFS...HWRF...GFDN...FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS FORECAST FAY TO CROSS WEST CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE BOTH SHIFTED EAST OF THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT ARE STILL ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN CALLING FOR A MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AFTER THE 48 HR POINT. EVERYONE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY...AS MOST LOCATIONS THERE HAVE ABOUT THE SAME CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT.

WHEN FAY IS OVER WATER...IT APPEARS THAT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR. THUS...THE INTENSITY WILL BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND THE RESULTING IMPACTS ON THE STORM STRUCTURE. ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECASTSTRENGTHENING...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT IN BESTAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST. FAY COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IF IT BECOMES WELL ORGANIZED OVER WATER...SUCH AS WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF CUBA OR OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ON THE OTHER HAND...IT MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH AT ALL IF LAND INTERACTION PREVENTS ORGANIZATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR FAY TO WEAKEN OVER THE UNITED STATES AFTER LANDFALL. SHOULD IT REMAIN OVER WATER AFTER 72HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/2100Z 19.3N 75.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 19.9N 77.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 20.9N 79.1W 50 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 18/0600Z 22.2N 80.7W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 23.6N 81.6W 55 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 19/1800Z 27.0N 82.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 30.0N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND120HR VT 21/1800Z 33.0N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND$$

2pm advisory for NHC

...CENTER OF FAY MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN HAITI AND CUBA...



A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OFCAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND SANCTI SPIRITUS.



A HURRICANE WATCHMEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCHAREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCESOF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...ANDGUANTANMO.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THETURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THEENTIRE COAST OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THATTROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREAWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRALBAHAMAS...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCHMEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCHAREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.



INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDAPENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLEINLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUEDBY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.



AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST OR ABOUT50 MILES...80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA AND ABOUT175 MILES...280 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.



A TURN TOWARDTHE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURNTOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY

WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBATONIGHT AND SUNDAY.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OFDAYS...AND FAY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHESCENTRAL CUBA ON SUNDAY.



AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERAIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE FAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KMFROM THE CENTER.ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THEWARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...ANDTHE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15INCHES.

THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODSAND MUD SLIDES.



REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...



19.2 N...74.9 W.

MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONALHURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.





$$FORECASTER BEVEN