Tropical Storm Bonnie

Today is July 23, 2010

Currently there is a TROPICAL STORM WARNING
in effect for Tangipahoa, St Tammany, Assumption, St John The Baptist, Lafourche, St Charles, Jefferson, Orleans, Plaquemines, St. Bernard, Terrebonne Parishes in Louisiana

and Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson Counties in Mississipi.

The Tropical Storm Warning stretches from Morgan City, LA though Destin Florida.

the current forecast track for Tropical Storm Bonnie is still towards the Louisiana coast, but the good news is that it will NOT become a Hurricane.



as of 11:00am EDT
from NHC:
Location: 25.4°N 80.3°W
Max Sustained Winds: 40 mph
Movement: WNW 18 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb.

at 11:35 EDT (10:35 CDT)
Bonnie made lanfall in Miami-Dade County



As you can see on radar the center if this very week storm is on land.


ok so what's this mean for us here in Lousiana?

Well, the Bonnie is moving in our direction, and will likely impact our area. Making landfall early Sunday morning, and early next week- Bonnie will be a distant memory


the storm does not look well organized at all, and is being influenced by a pretty strong upper level Low that is moving quickly off to the west.


this ULL is causing shear, and dry air entrainment into the storm. You can see the dry air on the map above in brown. the green blob over Florida, is the moisture from Bonnie.

The waters in the Gulf of Mexico is pretty warm, and if the storm wasn't moving 18-19 mph it would have time to develop, but that is not going to be the case.

First Tropical System of the System??

it looks like invest 92L could soon become our very first tropical system of the season. the National Hurricane Center gives it a High probability of tropical development (60%).

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1025 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

So, keep an eye open, as in the next 48 hours the first Tropical Depression, could form, and that may even develop into Tropical Storm Alex later this week

tropical outlook:

From NHC:

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

---

000
ABNT20 KNHC 092336
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN
HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN



this is a good way to start June, things will heat up soon though... 

Forecast for Boston, Massachusetts

Saturday December 19, 2009

Saturday	Sunday
Overcast snow beginning late	Chance of snow early becoming overcast clearing late
Rain Chance: 100%	Rain Chance: 80%
High:30 Low: 23	High: 27 Low: 21
Winds:N	Winds: N

Detailed Forecast

Tonight: A 100 percent chance of snow. Skies overcast. Snow beginning around 8pm. Winds from the north 15-30mph Between 9-12 inches of snow expected. Sunday: A 80 percent of chance of snow. Ending Sunday night. After the snow ends, expect freezing fog to develop. Visibility will be limited. Highs in the upper 30's. Low's around 20. Winds North 15-20mph. New snow accumulation amounts around 4 inches. Forecast Discussion Short-term (Tonight and Sunday): A low pressure system off the coast of Virginia is a major player in our weather for the next couple days. As the system rides along the coast of the eastern seaboard, expect large amount of snow. Snow could be 10-12 inches mainly between midnight and 8am. Sunday the snow will begin to move out after 6pm. total snow amount 15 inches.

Tropical Storm GUSTAV

Tropical Storm Gustav will be moving WNW through the day today, towards the Gulf of Mexico.

There is a lot of uncertainty with this storm, as far as intensity and landfall, as well as time of lanfall.

Currently there is a High Pressure off of the East Coast of Florida that is blocking the storm from moving north, and keeping it on a west-north-west path for today, and a gradual northwest turn is expected during the day of Saturday, as the High breaks down. There is another High that is expected to build in over the Southeast United States that could stall Gustav over the coast of Louisiana which would not be good at all for those in Southeast Louisiana. This would put SELA in the right front quadrant of the storm, which put them under the gun for the strongest (possibly up to 130mph) winds, heavy rain, and winds from the East which will push water from the gulf into Lake Borne, into Lake Pontchartrain.

Current models are scattered as you can see. A general consensus of South Louisiana is evident, basically they show a general north motion then a turn to the west. Where that turn happens is unknown, at this point. The three - five day day forecast is very inaccurate. I did not put a line or a point beyond Sunday. where I feel it will be in the central Gulf of Mexico as a Category 3 hurricane. It is not impossible to see a stronger hurricane, after it passes over the loop current. The upper level winds are favorable for development. also the storm has increased on satellite tonight.

Forecast graphic

Three Day Forecast:






Five Day Forecast:

5am Update - Fay making landfall at Cape Romano...

...FAY MAKING LANDFALL AT CAPE ROMANO...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED.

AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTHWARD...
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF TO THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY. ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ELSEWHERE ARE DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST...ON THE FLORIDA
COASTLINE AT CAPE ROMANO...OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM...SOUTH OF
FT. MYERS FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...TAKING THE CENTER OF FAY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS FAY MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY. TIDES OF 2
TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...25.9 N...81.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN