Tropical Storm Bonnie

Today is July 23, 2010

Currently there is a TROPICAL STORM WARNING
in effect for Tangipahoa, St Tammany, Assumption, St John The Baptist, Lafourche, St Charles, Jefferson, Orleans, Plaquemines, St. Bernard, Terrebonne Parishes in Louisiana

and Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson Counties in Mississipi.

The Tropical Storm Warning stretches from Morgan City, LA though Destin Florida.

the current forecast track for Tropical Storm Bonnie is still towards the Louisiana coast, but the good news is that it will NOT become a Hurricane.



as of 11:00am EDT
from NHC:
Location: 25.4°N 80.3°W
Max Sustained Winds: 40 mph
Movement: WNW 18 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb.

at 11:35 EDT (10:35 CDT)
Bonnie made lanfall in Miami-Dade County



As you can see on radar the center if this very week storm is on land.


ok so what's this mean for us here in Lousiana?

Well, the Bonnie is moving in our direction, and will likely impact our area. Making landfall early Sunday morning, and early next week- Bonnie will be a distant memory


the storm does not look well organized at all, and is being influenced by a pretty strong upper level Low that is moving quickly off to the west.


this ULL is causing shear, and dry air entrainment into the storm. You can see the dry air on the map above in brown. the green blob over Florida, is the moisture from Bonnie.

The waters in the Gulf of Mexico is pretty warm, and if the storm wasn't moving 18-19 mph it would have time to develop, but that is not going to be the case.

First Tropical System of the System??

it looks like invest 92L could soon become our very first tropical system of the season. the National Hurricane Center gives it a High probability of tropical development (60%).

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1025 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

So, keep an eye open, as in the next 48 hours the first Tropical Depression, could form, and that may even develop into Tropical Storm Alex later this week

tropical outlook:

From NHC:

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

---

000
ABNT20 KNHC 092336
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN
HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN



this is a good way to start June, things will heat up soon though...